Report maintains its underweight call on India.
The best-case scenario -- to which Morgan Stanley attaches 30 per cent probability -- pegs the S&P BSE Sensex at 41,500 levels in the next 12 months.
In a bull-case scenario it sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels, while it's bear case scenario pegs the Sensex at 41,000 levels by December 2021.
Morgan Stanley has increased the target prices of certain information technology (IT) stocks by as much as 29 per cent, anticipating an improvement in earnings in the near future. Within the IT and engineering research and development (ER&D) services sector, it is now more optimistic about growth and margin estimates for 2024-25 (FY25).
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
Despite headwinds, it remains "structurally bullish" on India and expects the Sensex to scale up to the 70,000-mark by December 2022; 80,000 level in a bull-case scenario and hover around the 50,000-mark as a bear-case, the brokerage house said in a report.
India is facing a challenging situation, where growth rate has slowed down significantly, yet inflation levels remain high. Early revision of policy rates would raise the risk of renewed currency depreciation pressures.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
According to Morgan Stanley, this December should prove 'good for bulls'.
By financial year 2024-25, Morgan Stanley expects per capita income to rise 125 per cent to $3,650.
Very gradual fiscal consolidation glide path with looser-than-expected fiscal policy; good quality spending mix and reasonable assumption on fiscal math; and focus on privatisation, asset monetisation and long-term funding for infrastructure investments, according to Morgan Stanley, are the three key themes from the Budget 2021.
The report said in the recent months policy makers as well as the private sector have made some efforts to improve productivity.
The bullishness in the Indian stock market is likely to continue and the benchmark Sensex will reach 32,500 by December 2015, global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley said.
Strong performance in the beauty and personal care (BPC) segment, margin gains, and expectations of a breakeven in the fashion business lifted sentiment for FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa). The consumer technology platform's stock rose 7.5 per cent on Friday, extending gains over the past week to more than 17 per cent. Most brokerages have upgraded the stock following its third-quarter (October-December/Q3) performance and higher profit expectations ahead.
The CAD has been narrowing since 2012 to an estimated 1.6% of GDP in 2014
Jewellery majors Titan Company and Kalyan Jewellers reported robust Q4 FY26 results, with Titan's consolidated revenue surging 81 per cent year-on-year, largely propelled by a sixfold increase in bullion and digital gold sales. Despite strong top-line growth, Titan's gross and operating profit margins faced pressure due to the higher share of lower-margin gold products and increased marketing expenditure.
The upward revision is due to stronger-than-expected GDP numbers for the quarter ended March 2016.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
The US' move to raise the tariff on most Indian goods to 50 per cent could drag India's GDP growth for FY26 by 35 to 60 basis points, according to various economists. One basis point (bp) is equal to 0.01 per cent.
There are hopes of a turnaround in overall corporate earnings after six quarters of single digit growth.
Shares of apparel retail major Trent fell over 8.6 per cent to ~4,048 apiece at the close of trade on Tuesday. Trading near its 52-week low, the stock has shed about 43 per cent over the past year. Sentiment around the Tata group company weakened after it reported lower than expected revenue for the third quarter (October-December/Q3) of 2025-26 (FY26). Brokerages expect the stock to remain under pressure in the near term.
With several $500 million-plus deals in the pipeline -- including ICICI Prudential AMC, Lenskart, PhonePe, Groww, PhysicsWallah, Meesho, Pine Labs, and Zepto -- investment bankers look poised for another year of hefty bonuses in 2025.
Reliance holds 67.03% of Jio Platforms Limited and the public listing would provide an exit to many investors.
Indian information technology (IT) service providers are expected to deliver low single-digit sequential growth in the first quarter (April-June) of 2025-26 (FY26), even as macroeconomic uncertainties continue to persist due to the volatile geopolitical environment.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd has spent $13 billion on acquisitions in the past five years across new energy, telecom, retail and media business to script a pivot away from core oil and petrochemicals business to clean energy and consumer facing verticals. Last week, Reliance bought oncology platform Karkinos Healthcare for Rs 375 crore, adding another stack to its diagnostic and digital healthcare ecosystem, Morgan Stanley said in a report.
Reliance Industries may report a muted performance for the April-June quarter of FY24, with most brokerages expecting it to have witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) contraction in revenue and net profit during the period because of a poor showing by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division. The O2C division, which includes refining and petrochemical businesses, accounts for a little over half of RIL's revenue and profit. A muted showing by RIL in the first quarter of 2023-24 may weigh on the overall corporate earnings, as well as the equity markets.
...compared with 153,000 in all of 2024.
GST Reform 2.0, which trims tax slabs from four to two, signals a push for demand-led growth, and together with recent income tax cuts, sets the stage for sustained economic growth, experts said. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council on September 3 approved an overhaul of the indirect tax regime by taxing essentials at 5 per cent and other goods at 18 per cent. A new 40 per cent tax will be applicable on luxury and sin items.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
The benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty has rallied 4 per cent, or 750 points, from this month's low to end at 19,732 on week ending November 17. Technical analysts say the market could consolidate around the current levels as it is nearing the resistance zone. "The near-term uptrend status of the market remains intact, but there is a possibility of some more consolidation or minor weakness for the Nifty in the next one to two sessions.
Urbanisation is a core component to the process of city formation and building out India's competitive strength in the global markets.
China spends seven times more on infrastructure than India.
China spends seven times more on infrastructure than India.
The first issue is inflation, which has been widely discussed. The government is now rightly working on reversing fiscal and monetary stimulus to manage the inflation pressure.
JSW Paints, part of $23 billion JSW Group, on Friday said it will acquire majority controlling stake in Akzo Nobel India Ltd (ANIL), the maker of Dulux paints, for Rs 8,986 crore. It will acquire 74.76 per cent stake from its Dutch promoters/holding entities -- namely Imperial Chemical Industries and Akzo Nobel Coatings International BV -- for a consideration of Rs 8,986 crore, according to a statement from the JSW Group firm.
The outcome of the general elections, the Morgan Stanley note says, has enough firepower to sway the markets on either side.
In the mid-year monetary policy review on Tuesday, RBI, left the key interest rate unchanged but reduced cash reserve ratio by 0.25 per cent to infuse additional liquidity of up to Rs 17,500 crore (Rs 175 billion) into the system.
Wall Street research analysts have suffered rounds of layoffs, big pay cuts, and accusations that they routinely lied to the investing public. Now there's a new worry -- that their jobs are being shipped overseas.
Some major contracts coming up for renewal include TCS' deals with Star Alliance, a consortium of airlines based in Germany, and Nielsen; Infosys' deals with GE Appliances and Daimler; HCLTech's with UK-based life insurer Chesnara; Wipro's with German electric utility company E.ON and Petrobras of Brazil; and Tech Mahindra's with Circle Health.
A lower risk appetite among investors has driven gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, to record highs so far this year. Fuelled by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, robust demand from central banks - particularly in Asia - and US President Donald Trump's tariff volleys, spot gold touched an all-time high of $2,956 per ounce on February 24 in the international markets.
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